Ukraine War Ceasefire Negotiations: Will It Be a ‘Big Deal’ Between the U.S. and Russia?
Recently, the possibility of high-level talks between the United States and Russia has been raised, drawing significant attention from the international community. Expectations and concerns about ending the Ukraine war are growing simultaneously. In particular, there is speculation that the two countries may discuss not just a simple ceasefire but also economic cooperation and normalization of relations, raising the possibility of a ‘big deal’ beyond mere war negotiations.
However, a major controversy is the possibility that Ukraine, the most directly involved party, may be excluded from these negotiations. President Zelensky expressed strong dissatisfaction, stating, “We cannot accept any agreement that excludes us.”
Will the U.S.-Russia Summit Happen? The Possibility of Rapid Ceasefire Negotiations
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump could take place within February. Although no specific schedule has been confirmed, current developments suggest that the United States and Russia are moving towards an agreement to end the Ukraine war early. However, the details of this negotiation have not been disclosed.
The fact that the negotiations between the United States and Russia may include not just a ceasefire but also ‘economic cooperation’ suggests that economic interests will be a crucial factor. A U.S. government official mentioned that “economic benefits will play a significant role,” signaling potential changes in the post-war international order.
Why is the U.S. eager to end the war quickly? The most likely analysis is that President Trump, who is facing re-election, wants to wrap up the prolonged war and present it as a diplomatic achievement.
Zelensky’s ‘Excluded Rage’: Can Negotiations Proceed Without Ukraine?
So far, Ukraine has been officially excluded from these negotiations. President Zelensky has strongly objected to this, stating, “There can be no negotiations without us.” From Ukraine’s perspective, it may feel that the U.S.-Russia talks are proceeding without fully considering its interests.
However, looking at international circumstances, Ukraine’s position is becoming increasingly unfavorable. As the war drags on, Western countries’ military and economic support is gradually weakening, and internal fatigue is growing. The U.S., in particular, is becoming more reluctant to intervene, given the astronomical costs it has already spent on supporting Ukraine.
The U.S. ‘Big Deal’: Can It End the War?
If negotiations between the United States and Russia succeed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that “we are seeking realistic solutions.” This increases the possibility of a swift end to the war. However, doubts remain as to whether Ukraine’s sovereignty will be adequately protected in this process. Russia has no intention of withdrawing from the occupied territories, while the U.S. may prefer to resolve the issue through economic compromises. Therefore, this negotiation may not simply aim to ‘end the war’ but could also incorporate some of Russia’s demands.
A ceasefire agreement that excludes Ukraine could ultimately spark another international conflict. If the Zelensky government refuses to accept it, the agreement reached between the U.S. and Russia may not have practical effectiveness. Additionally, if the negotiation overly favors Russia, opposition voices within the U.S. may grow louder.
As President Trump maneuvers this issue in alignment with his re-election strategy, the direction of the negotiations will be determined.
Ultimately, the Ukraine war ceasefire negotiations may go beyond just ending the war and serve as a process to reshape the new economic and diplomatic order between the United States and Russia. However, with Ukraine excluded from the negotiation table, the sustainability of this agreement remains questionable. Will this negotiation mark the beginning of peace, or will it become another source of conflict? The world is watching with bated breath.
